Exponential and Punctuated Evolution

This brief essay connects exponential technology growth to the coming changes in the level of bigotry in the world. We propose that the reason exponential technology is able to exist is because the human mind is capable of massive and overnight belief mutation. In fact, each evolutionary ratchet forward of technology requires a slight belief modification. And so far, there appears to be no upward bound on the rate of belief change that the human mind is capable of.

We sometimes talk about the possibility that the world can be a much better place in a short period of time. Some people believe serious deep rooted social change happens only gradually, as new generations of more tolerant young people take over the dashboard of government and business control.

While that slower process plays a major role in how society evolves, there are two other important factors:

Exponential Factors - With ever increasing frequency, our society is interacting in a feedback loop with our technology. Policy makers and public office candidates can take opinion polls in hours and respond to that data with modified policy proposals. We can organize political revolutions via the Internet in days, such as we saw in Egypt. Raw and uncensored news flows around the neural network of the World Wide Web so fast now that those in power often consider taking a fresh new approach… honesty, equity and transparency. Sure, if you're convinced that things generally stay the same or change very slowly, you can say that such positive behavior changes don't run deep and that we're merely seeing old behaviors dressed up in new clothes as selfish and bigoted people shift their behavior to avoid losing control. That's surely true in many cases. But something else is happening. Social scientists are now seeing evidence that social programming, such as learned prejudice towards gay people, is much more plastic and able to rapidly adapt than older social theories predict.

Punctuation Events - Of course, we know that biological evolution interacts with itself in feedback loops, two of which are long and short cycle loops. The long cycle loop is slow. As life competes for limited resources, it relies on genetic mutations to better adapt each new genus and species to slow growth environmental change, such as climate patterns, ocean water levels, salinity levels, tectonic plate movement, etc. The new genuses and species then act upon the slow evolutionary processes to further guide new mutations, ergo a "feedback loop". The short cycle feedback loop comes from abrupt "out of nowhere" environmental change, i.e., "punctuation events". For example, an asteroid impact can dramatically change the Co2 level of the atmosphere within 24 hours. Life rapidly responds, with certain species showing a higher propensity to adapt and change behavior without the need for genetic mutation. The rapid "overnight" behavior mutations in these groups allows members to survive. In other words, successful survivors of "punctuation event" environmental change tend to have more plasticity in their behavior patterns. There are many examples of this in nature. But humans are by far the most successful species at rapid behavior mutation (e.g., ice skating) without the need for physiological genetic adaptation/modification. We're literally built to change our behaviors and our minds… quickly. Yes, we're correlating behavior mutation to belief mutation.

We propose that the exponential growth of human technology itself will be viewed by future historians as the most significant punctuation event guiding belief mutation in human history. This exponential technology "thing" has a life of its own in many ways. For example, stock markets, fashion waves and the changing body of scientific knowledge in rapidly morphing fields, such as genetics, are examples of evolving systems that have a dynamical pattern, but which is not easily predicted. These emergent systems tend to be fairly autonomous and free of central control from any person or group. At an increasing rate, this emergent informational "life form" is relying upon and exploiting our natural evolutionary ability to rapidly change… i.e., our powerful survival skill of behavior and belief plasticity. Beliefs quickly come to mirror behaviors just as behaviors come to mirror beliefs. And every set of behaviors has a set of beliefs associated with it. So an individual or a society's belief plasticity and behavior plasticity both reinforce and mirror one another. Obviously, the rate of belief plasticity in such a system determines the rate of behavior evolution.

As an example of rapid dogma change, consider this quote from a May 20, 2012 article by the executive editor of Bloomberg News, Albert Hunt:

"…public opinion is moving inexorably toward greater tolerance. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is instructive: In the middle of the 2004 presidential election, the public, by better than a 2- to-1 margin, opposed same-sex marriages. This year, in the same poll, on the same question, a plurality favored it."

Think carefully about that. The gay marriage issue is something emotionally rooted into the mesh of supposedly fast held American beliefs, most generally emanating from learned religious dogma. So then how is it that an issue so influenced by religion and so deeply "learned" can undergo such a dramatic public belief shift in just a few years? This is a brilliant scientifically controlled example of how humans are far more comfortable and capable of changing their deeply held beliefs than we give ourselves credit for.

So what's another way to think about all this? We like to talk about how our understanding of the universe is exponentially changing, along with our resulting technologies. But how about playing with words and wondering, "Could the human species be embarking upon an evolutionary punctuation event with regard to social tolerance? In less than one generation, will we witness an exponential rate of change of bigotry and intolerance, such that hateful views towards gay marriage in, say, five years will be as rare as it is today for people to believe that slavery or forcing African Americans to sit at the back of the bus is ethical?"

If you too conclude that the human skill of belief plasticity is the engine allowing exponential technology growth to exist (advances in science require rapid belief change), then you might also conclude that our new global network of minds connected via the Internet currently has us "locked and loaded" for a massive paradigm shift to be communicated… a large scale belief mutation. If in fact tolerance, service to others and equality were more advantageous for society and its emergent systems of behavior (such as technology) than survival of the fittest based competition for limited resources, then it's only a matter of time before a "best practices" paradigm shift of global behavior takes root via simple evolution. And when it does, it's fair to expect it to occur with blinding speed, due to the increasing tendency towards rapid change of all systems, which we have been exhibiting globally as of late. And those best practice behavior changes will be mirrored by belief changes and vice versa. So what about the ideas of emerging abundance, as outlined in Peter Diamandis' book, Abundance? How would that influence this evolutionary shift in beliefs? Clearly, this is a second contributing factor to the best practices paradigm shift we're talking about. Let us argue for inevitability. We propose that even without technology enabled abundance of resources, our species is capable of (and the system would inevitably evolve to) a shift to a less selfish and more tolerant society. It better ensures survival. But considering the fact that abundance is also virtually inevitable, such a paradigm shift of beliefs towards kindness and tolerance is a slam dunk.