This brief essay connects exponential technology growth to the
coming changes in the level of bigotry in the world. We propose that the reason
exponential technology is able to exist is because the human mind is capable of
massive and overnight belief mutation. In fact, each evolutionary ratchet
forward of technology requires a slight belief modification. And so far, there
appears to be no upward bound on the rate of belief change that the human mind
is capable of.
We sometimes talk about the possibility
that the world can be a much better place in a short period of time. Some
people believe serious deep rooted social change happens only gradually, as new
generations of more tolerant young people take over the dashboard of government
and business control.
While
that slower process plays a major role in how society evolves, there are two
other important factors:
Exponential
Factors -
With ever increasing frequency, our society is interacting in a feedback loop
with our technology. Policy makers and public office candidates can take
opinion polls in hours and respond to that data with modified policy proposals.
We can organize political revolutions via the Internet in days, such as we saw
in Egypt. Raw and uncensored news flows around the neural network of the World
Wide Web so fast now that those in power often consider taking a fresh new
approach… honesty, equity and transparency. Sure, if you're convinced that
things generally stay the same or change very slowly, you can say that such
positive behavior changes don't run deep and that we're merely seeing old
behaviors dressed up in new clothes as selfish and bigoted people shift their
behavior to avoid losing control. That's surely true in many cases. But
something else is happening. Social scientists are now seeing evidence that
social programming, such as learned prejudice towards gay people, is much more
plastic and able to rapidly adapt than older social theories predict.
Punctuation
Events
- Of course, we know that biological evolution interacts with itself in
feedback loops, two of which are long and short cycle loops. The long cycle
loop is slow. As life competes for limited resources, it relies on genetic
mutations to better adapt each new genus and species to slow growth
environmental change, such as climate patterns, ocean water levels, salinity
levels, tectonic plate movement, etc. The new genuses and species then act upon
the slow evolutionary processes to further guide new mutations, ergo a
"feedback loop". The short cycle feedback loop comes from abrupt
"out of nowhere" environmental change, i.e., "punctuation events".
For example, an asteroid impact can dramatically change the Co2 level of the
atmosphere within 24 hours. Life rapidly responds, with certain species showing
a higher propensity to adapt and change behavior without the need for genetic
mutation. The rapid "overnight" behavior mutations in these groups
allows members to survive. In other words, successful survivors of
"punctuation event" environmental change tend to have more plasticity
in their behavior patterns. There are many examples of this in nature. But
humans are by far the most successful species at rapid behavior mutation (e.g.,
ice skating) without the need for physiological genetic
adaptation/modification. We're literally built to change our behaviors and our
minds… quickly. Yes, we're correlating behavior mutation to belief mutation.
We
propose that the exponential growth of human technology itself will be viewed
by future historians as the most significant punctuation event guiding belief
mutation in human history. This exponential technology "thing" has a
life of its own in many ways. For example, stock markets, fashion waves and the
changing body of scientific knowledge in rapidly morphing fields, such as
genetics, are examples of evolving systems that have a dynamical pattern, but
which is not easily predicted. These emergent systems tend to be fairly
autonomous and free of central control from any person or group. At an
increasing rate, this emergent informational "life form" is relying
upon and exploiting our natural evolutionary ability to rapidly change… i.e.,
our powerful survival skill of behavior and belief plasticity. Beliefs quickly
come to mirror behaviors just as behaviors come to mirror beliefs. And every
set of behaviors has a set of beliefs associated with it. So an individual or a
society's belief plasticity and behavior plasticity both reinforce and mirror
one another. Obviously, the rate of belief plasticity in such a system
determines the rate of behavior evolution.
As
an example of rapid dogma change, consider this quote from a May 20, 2012
article by the executive editor of Bloomberg News, Albert Hunt:
"…public opinion is moving inexorably toward greater tolerance.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is instructive: In the middle of the 2004
presidential election, the public, by better than a 2- to-1 margin, opposed
same-sex marriages. This year, in the same poll, on the same question, a
plurality favored it."
Think
carefully about that. The gay marriage issue is something emotionally rooted
into the mesh of supposedly fast held American beliefs, most generally
emanating from learned religious dogma. So then how is it that an issue so
influenced by religion and so deeply "learned" can undergo such a
dramatic public belief shift in just a few years? This is a brilliant
scientifically controlled example of how humans are far more comfortable and
capable of changing their deeply held beliefs than we give ourselves credit
for.
So
what's another way to think about all this? We like to talk about how our
understanding of the universe is exponentially changing, along with our
resulting technologies. But how about playing with words and wondering,
"Could the human species be embarking upon an evolutionary punctuation
event with regard to social tolerance? In less than one generation, will we
witness an exponential rate of change of bigotry and intolerance, such that
hateful views towards gay marriage in, say, five years will be as rare as it is
today for people to believe that slavery or forcing African Americans to sit at
the back of the bus is ethical?"
If you too conclude
that the human skill of belief plasticity is the engine allowing exponential
technology growth to exist (advances in science require rapid belief change),
then you might also conclude that our new global network of minds connected via
the Internet currently has us "locked and loaded" for a massive
paradigm shift to be communicated… a large scale belief mutation. If in fact
tolerance, service to others and equality were more advantageous for society
and its emergent systems of behavior (such as technology) than survival of the
fittest based competition for limited resources, then it's only a matter of
time before a "best practices" paradigm shift of global behavior
takes root via simple evolution. And when it does, it's fair to expect it to
occur with blinding speed, due to the increasing tendency towards rapid change
of all systems, which we have been exhibiting globally as of late. And those
best practice behavior changes will be mirrored by belief changes and vice
versa. So what about the ideas of emerging abundance, as outlined in Peter
Diamandis' book, Abundance? How would that influence this evolutionary shift in
beliefs? Clearly, this is a second contributing factor to the best practices
paradigm shift we're talking about. Let us argue for inevitability. We propose that
even without technology enabled abundance of resources, our species is capable
of (and the system would inevitably evolve to) a shift to a less selfish and
more tolerant society. It better ensures survival. But
considering the fact that abundance is also virtually inevitable, such a paradigm shift of beliefs
towards kindness and tolerance is a slam dunk.
